How autonomous vehicles will change our lives

January 19, 2018

Last week we discussed how self-driving cars will shake up the automotive industry. This week, we investigate how these cars will change our everyday life as they enable us to change existing practices and develop new ones. Even though change may occur slowly at first, since fully autonomous vehicles are still a long way out, more people will be able to travel more, and they will find new destinations.

Our observations

  • The original automobile triggered people to travel more, to seek new destinations, and to develop new practices. Eventually, the value of those new or changed practices overvalued the costs of buying and the operation of theng cars.
  • Vehicles with increasing levels of autonomy are expected to increase road safety, make driving more comfortable, and ultimately allow drivers and passengers to take their eyes off the road and engage in more rewarding activities such as work or leisure.
  • To speed up the acceptance of autonomous vehicles (AVs), which will be hampered by so-called edge cases that are too difficult for the system to deal with, startup Phantom Auto aims to develop remote control systems through which a human driver can take over from a central facility.
  • Self-driving public transport could be used as a link in a multimodal trip well ahead of mass deployment of AVs for individual use. Since labor costs are a major factor in public transport, such unmanned (mini-)buses or pods could run at higher frequencies and fulfill a trip’s last mile without prohibitive stopover times.
  • Early fleets of AVs are likely to be deployed in private communities such as Florida’s The Villages or sites like airports. As with early electric cars, cities will compete to get the first fleets of AVs on their roads.
  • Volkswagen’s chief digital officer, Johann Jungwirth noted that people could save up to four years when they no longer have to drive their own cars.
  • AVs will not only carry passengers, but many services may also become autonomously mobile to serve us at our homes and offices. Mobile supermarkets may for instance see a come-back.

Connecting the dots

The arrival of ever smarter cars with varying degrees of autonomy will shake up the automotive industry, but it will also change everyday life to a great extent. That is, history teaches us that faster, cheaper, or more comfortable modes of transport lead us to travel more and to seek new destinations. Autonomous cars will most probably show similar effects.The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) has defined five progressive levels of autonomy, ranging from basic driver assistance features to full autonomy. On this scale, current commercial systems, e.g. Tesla’s Autopilot, classify as Level 2, but they already bring significant benefits to drivers, such as safety and comfort. These benefits will not change the mobility patterns radically, but they are likely to let more people drive more often. This will happen especially when legislators embrace the new technology and, for instance, allow younger drivers to acquire a driver’s license and stretch rules for the disabled.Higher levels of autonomy assume that drivers can really take their eyes off the road and engage in other activities. In levels 3 and 4, drivers will still regularly be called upon to take over control, but in the meantime, they will be able to work, surf on the Internet, or watch a movie. Estimates as to when these cars will be available range from two years (e.g. Tesla) to as much as 15 years. Before mass deployment, small series will probably be deployed in specific niches such as airports, gated communities, or very progressive cities. Such early applications may also include motorsports (e.g. Roborace) to demonstrate technological capabilities or consumer-oriented experiences (e.g. fun rides, re-enacting famous car chases from movies, the AV as a gaming device).Full autonomy for the masses will bring radically new consumer practices. These will range from new in-car activities (e.g. media, shopping, work, sleeping) to new leisurely destinations. New communities may even form as people will choose their home location on the basis of other criteria than commuting time. Some may even choose to live some kind of a new nomadic life along the lines of the #vanlife trend. Ultimately, the meaning of these vehicles will change from mere cars to a wide variety of mobile units with distinct purposes that support altogether new practices.

Implications

  • Even lower levels of autonomy will increase road safety and lower thresholds for individuals to travel more and farther. This implies a further democratization of individual mobility that was already set in motion by the original automobile.
  • Most consider the autonomous vehicle as a mode of passenger transport, but we can also imagine a future in which all sorts of goods and services come to us, and we would not have to travel as much anymore. Such services could include automated food trucks, medical scanners, or DIY equipment. This would actually run counter to the historic trend of the ever-greater mobility of people, and it could even result in a situation of “hypomobility” instead of the hypermobility that AVs seem to result in at first glance.
  • Since all the autonomous vehicles are packed with all sorts of cameras and sensors, public space and life will be monitored almost continuously. This is bound to result in new forms of surveillance and the increase of the (public or private) control of everyday life.

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: The object
Humans shape tools. We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans. We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time. We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils. Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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2. The machine
Category: The object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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3. The robot
Category: The object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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4. Intelligence
Category: The object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me? (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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5. The medium
Category: The object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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6. The artisan
Category: The human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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7. The deficient animal
Category: The human
Once we became upright bipedal animals, humans found themselves exposed and therefore in a state of fundamental need and deficiency. However, with our hands now free and our eyes fixed on the horizon instead of the ground, we gradually evolved into handy creatures with foresight. Since then, human beings have invented roofs to keep them dry, fire to prepare their meals and weapons to eliminate their enemies. This genesis of man does not only tell us about the never-ending struggle for protection and survival, but more fundamentally about our nature as technical beings, that we are artificial by nature. From the early cave drawings, all the way to the typewriter, touchscreens, and algorithmic autocorrections, technics was there, and is here, to support us in our wondering and reasoning. Everything we see and everywhere we live is co-invented by technics, including ourselves. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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8. The enhanced human
Category: The human
In a lab reminiscent of Apple HQ, a figure lies down, receiving his most recent cognitive updates. He wears a sleek transparent exoskeleton, blending the dark look of Bat Man with the metallic of Iron Man. Implemented in his head, we find a brain-computer interface, enhancing his cognitive abilities. His decision making, once burdened by the human deficiency we used to call hesitation or deliberation, now takes only fractions of seconds. Negative emotions no longer fog his mind; selective neurotransmitters enhance only the positive, fostering beneficial social connections. His vision, augmented to perceive the unseen electromechanical patterns and waves hidden from conventional sight, paints a deeper picture of the world. Garbed in a suit endowed with physical augmentations, he moves with strength and agility that eclipse human norms. Nano implants prolong the inevitable process of aging, a buffer against time's relentless march to entropy. And then, as a penultimate hedge against the finite, the cryo-cabin awaits, a sanctuary to preserve his corporal frame while bequeathing his consciousness to the digital immortality of coded existence. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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9. The cyborg
Category: The human
A skin so soft and pure, veins pulsing with liquid electricity. This fusion of flesh and machinery, melds easily into the urban sprawl and daily life of future societies. Something otherworldly yet so comfortingly familiar, it embodies both pools of deep historical knowledge and the yet-to-be. It defies categorization, its existence unraveling established narratives. For some, its hybrid nature is a perplexing anomaly; for others, this is what we see when we look into the mirror. This is the era of the cyborg. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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About the author(s)

Researcher Sjoerd Bakker is fascinated by the interplay between technology and society, and has studied the role of different actors in the innovation and implementation of new technologies throughout his career. At the thinktank, he is mainly involved in research and consultancy projects for clients, and strategic and thematic research for sister company Dasym. Among other themes, Sjoerd frequently writes and speaks about the power and danger of digital technology, as well as sustainability in both technological and institutional innovation.

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