© DALL·E 2

Breaking the bottleneck

Martine Dirkzwager Wu
July 12, 2023
AI Metaphors
Bottleneck ahoy!

In the U.S., Europe, Australia and the UK, the “forgotten giant of decarbonization and net zero”, grid infrastructures, have become a major obstacle to the rollout of renewable energy projects. Renewable energy developers are faced with connection queues of up to 15 years, large backlogs and high withdrawal rates. Only 21% of the projects and 14% of capacity seeking connection from 2000-2017 reached commercial operation. An estimated 80mn kilometers of new grid – surpassing the entire global grid today – will be needed to respond to demands by 2050. Despite the bottleneck ahead, clean energy demands are surging, partly due to net-zero pledges, new investment opportunities, and a growing appetite for transforming the energy system, largely due to state-led initiatives relying on market mechanisms. Hopeful about these initiatives, analysts recently celebrated the return of industrial policy (did it ever leave?) and economist Dani Rodrik gladly welcomed “productivism” – a new model of growth focused on good quality jobs, appropriate technology, and support for local supply chains. Yet from an environmental point of view, critics remain skeptical of whether subsidies and tax incentives can create sufficient impetus for private businesses to meaningfully redirect investment to where it is actually needed for decarbonization.

No guarantees

Consider the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed in August 2022 by U.S. president Joe Biden. The act allocates $369bn to spending and uncapped tax incentives: the IRA makes the largest climate and energy investment in American history. The IRA is designed to state-direct the scaling of private investment in green sectors. But can market coordination alone lead America’s decarbonization? The investments needed to decarbonize our systems are fundamentally asynchronous with expenditure cycles, profitability margins, and capital depreciations. Asset-manager-led investments might not be able to coordinate the transition without first succumbing to profit imperatives and liquidity preferences, taking us back to the structural underinvestment we’re stuck at today.

Burning questions
  • Is an industrial policy approach suitable for today’s macroeconomic environment?
  • What sort of public institutions could be designed to foster decarbonization?
  • How could the IRA’s domestic content requirements impact Chinese-U.S. relations?
  • Albeit with reasonable judgement, the EU has framed America’s industrial policy approach as a zero-sum competition towards building green industrial capacity. Should green transitions be bound by nation-state strategies? Or could we see grids being built beyond borders?
  • What type of entity/coordination mechanism would be necessary for the transition to happen on a global level, and not just in the rich global north? Multilateral development banks? Non-profits? 

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: The object
Humans shape tools. We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans. We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time. We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils. Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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2. The machine
Category: The object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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3. The robot
Category: The object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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4. Intelligence
Category: The object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me? (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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5. The medium
Category: The object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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6. The artisan
Category: The human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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7. The deficient animal
Category: The human
Once we became upright bipedal animals, humans found themselves exposed and therefore in a state of fundamental need and deficiency. However, with our hands now free and our eyes fixed on the horizon instead of the ground, we gradually evolved into handy creatures with foresight. Since then, human beings have invented roofs to keep them dry, fire to prepare their meals and weapons to eliminate their enemies. This genesis of man does not only tell us about the never-ending struggle for protection and survival, but more fundamentally about our nature as technical beings, that we are artificial by nature. From the early cave drawings, all the way to the typewriter, touchscreens, and algorithmic autocorrections, technics was there, and is here, to support us in our wondering and reasoning. Everything we see and everywhere we live is co-invented by technics, including ourselves. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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8. The enhanced human
Category: The human
In a lab reminiscent of Apple HQ, a figure lies down, receiving his most recent cognitive updates. He wears a sleek transparent exoskeleton, blending the dark look of Bat Man with the metallic of Iron Man. Implemented in his head, we find a brain-computer interface, enhancing his cognitive abilities. His decision making, once burdened by the human deficiency we used to call hesitation or deliberation, now takes only fractions of seconds. Negative emotions no longer fog his mind; selective neurotransmitters enhance only the positive, fostering beneficial social connections. His vision, augmented to perceive the unseen electromechanical patterns and waves hidden from conventional sight, paints a deeper picture of the world. Garbed in a suit endowed with physical augmentations, he moves with strength and agility that eclipse human norms. Nano implants prolong the inevitable process of aging, a buffer against time's relentless march to entropy. And then, as a penultimate hedge against the finite, the cryo-cabin awaits, a sanctuary to preserve his corporal frame while bequeathing his consciousness to the digital immortality of coded existence. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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9. The cyborg
Category: The human
A skin so soft and pure, veins pulsing with liquid electricity. This fusion of flesh and machinery, melds easily into the urban sprawl and daily life of future societies. Something otherworldly yet so comfortingly familiar, it embodies both pools of deep historical knowledge and the yet-to-be. It defies categorization, its existence unraveling established narratives. For some, its hybrid nature is a perplexing anomaly; for others, this is what we see when we look into the mirror. This is the era of the cyborg. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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About the author(s)

With a background in Philosophy, Politics and Economics and a Master’s in History, Martine Dirkzwager Wu is intrigued by researching what the new conditions for the Humanities are in the age of the Anthropocene. In trying to understand a fundamentally unintelligible world, her thought process aims to be as critical as creative. She celebrates an era of post-truth in which knowledge can be traced through academic, but also natural and artistic networks.

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