European politics is in flux, and to some in danger. Recently, Macron stated in an interview with the Economist that Europe is in ‘mortal danger’. And in recent polling conducted across 21 countries, including 10 non-European nations, a third of Europeans and a significant number of non-Europeans believe that the EU will disintegrate within the next 20 years. First of all, the largest war in Europe since 1945 is a major concern, as nearly three-quarters of non-Europeans who think the EU's collapse is likely also expect Russia to win the war in Ukraine. Secondly, if Trump is re-elected, he could withdraw the security support that Europe has relied on from the United States for the past 80 years. Trump has also indicated he would seek a deal with Putin over Ukraine and significantly reduce American military support, which would not only be disastrous for Ukraine on the battlefield but also pose a severe challenge to European security. Even if Europe aims to build up and strengthen its defense industry, achieving strategic autonomy within a year will not be feasible. Thirdly, socioeconomic and cultural issues – such as migration, improving European companies’ competitiveness, rising costs of living, climate change and aging societies – are all driving electoral politics across Europe but also fragmenting the political landscape.

All of this is reflected in the latest European election results, although with less disruptive effects than were feared. Far-right and hard-right parties gained almost a quarter of all votes (up from around 20% in 2019), and performed well in major European countries such as the Netherlands, Germany and France. Still, the ‘center holds’ in Europe, as the center-right EPP won the elections and increased its share of seats compared to the current Parliament. The main question now is whether the ‘mainstream’ political parties and forces can cooperate and elect a new European Commission President (Ursula von der Leyen’s second term is most likely). And in its slipstream, it will be decisive whether some more moderate far-right parties, such as Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia will help to support the center-right, or whether the far- and hard-right factions will form a unity pact of power. Historically, national differences have prevented these parties from doing so, but the given pushback on migration and climate policies could unite them.

Historically, European politics was largely about ‘small politics’ where ‘muddling through’ and some lengthy discussions were enough. But Europeans live in a time where Europe will have to act in terms of ‘high policy’ given its existential threats (Russian and Trumpist threats, managing China, climate change and migration, as well as reviving European industrial policy). The more fragmented, and more right-leaning European Parliament could make this more complex, but will not paralyze the EU. We expect that the ‘colors’ of the next five years European politics will be:

1. Green: climate change will remain high on the agenda, even though the Green parties have seen some losses. Although it will be more difficult to achieve an ambitious climate agenda, the winning centrist mainstream parties are likely to support the Green New Deal. Next to green will be the ‘green’ of army soldiers in European security, as the war in Ukraine has stirred up and accelerated support for more integration and cooperation of European armies.
2. Blue: The EU wants to further develop its innovation and digital policies, with a strong focus on trust: all characteristics associated with blue. The contention is that the current Commission led by von der Leyen has now laid the regulatory framework for digitalization (with all recent digital acts, with the AI Act lastly) and that the emphasis will be placed on its implementation in the coming years. With the focus on implementation, more attention is also being paid to prioritizing strategic innovation and investments, and that the European Commission and EU want to play a more active role in this to strengthen its geopolitical role as rule/standard setter. See this overview for the 2020—2025 regulatory cycle and its proposals and acts and that most acts and proposals have now been finished in the European political arena.
3. Red: As the competition with China will likely intensify in the coming years, for example with respect to the ‘dumping’ of Chinese electric vehicles or political interference in national politics, national safety, security, and sovereignty will be another top priority. In economic terms, this means strengthening European competitiveness and decoupling from its main foes, in political terms more control of foreign interferences, and in socio-cultural sense the soft power reach of other countries. This will intensify if Trump wins the next US elections, possibly straining ties with Europe further. Red is also the framing of rightist parties of the ‘danger’ caused by illegal and legal migration, for the social structures of societies as well as dangers of new terrorist threats. New policies to manage and/or prevent migration will be supported by the right-side of the political spectrum in the coming years, ranging from more funds to asylum organizations to border patrol and control.

European politics will have to navigate these turbulent times, and the urgency and interplay of green, blue, and red themes will shape the continent's future with various scenarios. One scenario can be imagined in which Europe becomes stronger through unity in diversity because of these threats: the green agenda could spearhead innovative environmental technologies, making Europe a leader in sustainable development and exporting innovations and regulation throughout the world. The blue focus on digitalization and strategic innovation could position the EU as a hub for cutting-edge technology and digital governance, adopting radical new technologies to make it sovereign as well as competitive. Red’s emphasis on security and sovereignty might foster a resilient Europe, capable of protecting its interests and values against external pressures, and thus a stronger solidarity and coherence between European member states. The opposite might also happen when the right fractions of European politics derail most political decisions and policies. Then, Europe will reach deeper fragmentation and discord, rather than unity. The green agenda will become a contentious battleground that splits voters and parties even more, highlighting differences in national priorities and economic capabilities. Similarly, the blue focus on digitalization and innovation could benefit some wealthier, more technologically advanced nations, leaving less developed member states struggling to keep up, which could foster resentment and undermine the spirit of collaboration. Moreover, the rush to adopt radical new technologies might outpace the establishment of robust regulatory frameworks, leading to privacy concerns, cybersecurity threats, and public distrust. All the while security and safety issues grow larger with political inaction, thus amplifying national sentiments and protectionist policies. As countries prioritize their own interests, solidarity within the EU could erode, making it more difficult to reach consensus on critical issues.

When mixing these three ‘colors’ of European politics – green, blue, and red – one gets the color ‘gray’. Grey often stands for stability and trustworthiness, as well as neutral and calming. We might hope that the next five years of European politics will be a soft but gradual move from low to high politics, and that European institutions are capable of managing the current threats. All at the same time while trust in the mainstream centrist parties is fading, the ‘old and gray’ continent could emerge stronger from these years towards a less colorful but brighter future.