Speculation as a way to design the future

February 27, 2018

Some technologies have advanced beyond our ability to conceptualize their implications. In response, a new discipline in design, architecture, and art emerged: Speculative Design. It takes the uncertainties and ambiguity of new technologies as a starting point and imagines possible outcomes. It includes non-human agents and anticipates a world in which humans might play a less central role.  

Our observations

  • In the past ten years, a new discipline in design surfaced: Speculative Design (SD). The term was coined in the ’90s by Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby. In Speculative Everything (2013) they describe SD not only as a tool to create things, but also to speculate about how things could be, in order to imagine possible futures.
  • Benjamin Bratton, who teaches SD in the U.S., proposes in The Stack (2015) that different genres of computation smart grids of a planetary scale, such as cloud platforms, smart cities, the IoT, and automation, can form a coherent whole: an accidental megastructure that is both a computational infrastructure and a new governing architecture.
  • Leading institutes design speculative projects and various universities worldwide have SD programs. The MIT Design Fiction Group and the Moscow based Strelka Institute for Media, Architecture, and Design, for example, teach SD. Liam Young is a known speculative designer and his think tank Tomorrow’s Today’s Thought operates in this area. Another think tank concerning SD is the Near Future Laboratory. The past Istanbul Design Biennale 'Are we human' was an exhibition of SD. The Amsterdam-based design studio Metahaven is known for its speculative projects (and for its collaboration with Edward Snowden by designing the platform WikiLeaks).
  • In previous notes, we talked about how to forecast the future and we introduced movements, such as accelerationism, that try to embrace technological developments that shape our world. Now, SD deals with the uncertainties and ambiguities of technologies in order to anticipate the future.

Connecting the dots

Speculative Design (SD) introduces two new ways of thinking about the world.First, SD deals with the new materialism of our world. Before, industrial material allowed for the inexpensive mass distribution of standardized designs: new matter provided a new materialism. Today, we are confronted with a new kind of materialism that is potentially just as transformative, Klaus Schwab writes in The Fourth Industrial Revolution (2016). Biotechnology, IoT, AI, and robotics form the new materialism that restructures the world. Our minds can grasp the initial applications of these technologies, but the second or third order effects are hard to foresee. SD tries to probe the contours of the possible transformations. This differs from predicting because SD borrows techniques of fiction in order to explore the implications and consequences of emerging technologies. SD places new technologies within imaginary but everyday situations in order to start a debate on the implications of different technological futures. SD poses “what if” questions to open discussions about the kind of future we want and anticipates at the future to make it more shapeable.Second, in times of IoT, AI, etc., SD seeks to overturn the way of thinking which has been the privilege of the human being. In After Finitude (2008), French philosopher Meillassoux says we now have to allow ways of thinking that are not correlated with the human. SD is thus geared toward users who may or may not be human. Bratton gives us the example of ubiquitous computation that seeds communication to and from objects at, below, or above a normal human scale of encounter: How will computational assemblages define our sight and change our territories? Another example is machine vision: When we will “see” through the eyes of a machine, can we program these to share our aesthetics and interpretations?SD deals with the ambiguity and uncertainty generated by the new materialism through creating a framework for discussion that includes nonhuman users: it is a design discipline for the post-Anthropocene. The questions of how successful SD can be in getting us ready for the future and whether speculation will not lead us to even more uncertainty, remain. Nevertheless, SD might help us shape our intuition of our future world.

Implications

  • Producers that understand the principles of new materialism.
  • Design that go against the misguiding simplification of nostalgic design and gears users to deal with a new reality.
  • Tools of fiction as a skill or competitive advantage.

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: The object
Humans shape tools. We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans. We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time. We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils. Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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2. The machine
Category: The object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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3. The robot
Category: The object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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4. Intelligence
Category: The object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me? (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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5. The medium
Category: The object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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6. The artisan
Category: The human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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7. The deficient animal
Category: The human
Once we became upright bipedal animals, humans found themselves exposed and therefore in a state of fundamental need and deficiency. However, with our hands now free and our eyes fixed on the horizon instead of the ground, we gradually evolved into handy creatures with foresight. Since then, human beings have invented roofs to keep them dry, fire to prepare their meals and weapons to eliminate their enemies. This genesis of man does not only tell us about the never-ending struggle for protection and survival, but more fundamentally about our nature as technical beings, that we are artificial by nature. From the early cave drawings, all the way to the typewriter, touchscreens, and algorithmic autocorrections, technics was there, and is here, to support us in our wondering and reasoning. Everything we see and everywhere we live is co-invented by technics, including ourselves. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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8. The enhanced human
Category: The human
In a lab reminiscent of Apple HQ, a figure lies down, receiving his most recent cognitive updates. He wears a sleek transparent exoskeleton, blending the dark look of Bat Man with the metallic of Iron Man. Implemented in his head, we find a brain-computer interface, enhancing his cognitive abilities. His decision making, once burdened by the human deficiency we used to call hesitation or deliberation, now takes only fractions of seconds. Negative emotions no longer fog his mind; selective neurotransmitters enhance only the positive, fostering beneficial social connections. His vision, augmented to perceive the unseen electromechanical patterns and waves hidden from conventional sight, paints a deeper picture of the world. Garbed in a suit endowed with physical augmentations, he moves with strength and agility that eclipse human norms. Nano implants prolong the inevitable process of aging, a buffer against time's relentless march to entropy. And then, as a penultimate hedge against the finite, the cryo-cabin awaits, a sanctuary to preserve his corporal frame while bequeathing his consciousness to the digital immortality of coded existence. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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9. The cyborg
Category: The human
A skin so soft and pure, veins pulsing with liquid electricity. This fusion of flesh and machinery, melds easily into the urban sprawl and daily life of future societies. Something otherworldly yet so comfortingly familiar, it embodies both pools of deep historical knowledge and the yet-to-be. It defies categorization, its existence unraveling established narratives. For some, its hybrid nature is a perplexing anomaly; for others, this is what we see when we look into the mirror. This is the era of the cyborg. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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About the author(s)

Researcher Julia Rijssenbeek focuses on our relationship to nature, sustainable and technological transitions in the food system, and the geopolitics of our global food sytems. She is currently working on her PhD in philosophy of technology at Wageningen University, investigating how synthetic biology might alter philosophical ideas about nature and the values we hold, as well as what a bio-based future may bring.

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