Since the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, relations between North and South Korea have markedly improved. Recently, their leaders, Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in, met for the first time. They discussed a more permanent peace settlement to the Korean War and denuclearization of the peninsula. Before the meeting, Kim Jong-un made a surprise visit to China, where he met with Xi Jinping extensively. In early June, Donald Trump will be the first sitting American president to meet a North Korean leader.
As we have argued elsewhere, unpredictability is a key feature of North Korean strategy. Over the decades, North Korea has gone through several cycles of confrontation and rapprochement with the U.S. After tensions had risen, Bill Clinton established the Agreed Framework over nuclear proliferation in 1994. Tensions rose again after nuclear tests in 1998. Under G.W. Bush, the “six-party” talks were initiated, which collapsed in 2009. Obama oversaw a period of confrontation. North Korea thus oscillates between two positions, but does not fundamentally change the status quo.
An alignment of factors makes a phase of rapprochement likely: First, for the first time in a decade, South Korea is not led by a hardliner. Second, China is throwing its weight behind a diplomatic solution. Third, President Trump is eager for a foreign policy success. Most importantly, North Korea is motivated to consolidate its position: Its nuclear proliferation has brought a U.S. president to the table, while at the same time, Chinese scientists suggest that its nuclear test site has collapsed. Such phases of rapprochement never last long and the country will not give up its nuclear arsenal. A few months ago, public opinion exaggerated the threat of war with North Korea. Now, it is exaggerating the prospect of a peace settlement.
