Retroscope 2018: Hegemonic cycle

December 21, 2018

As we have frequently reported, we are in a period of “hegemonic shift”, as the Atlantic Era is coming to an end. In 2018, we have seen many manifestations of this shift (e.g. in India or Vietnam) and an increasing fragmentation of global (military) power. Although we should be aware that this is a return – or that the Atlantic Era was a kind of historical aberration – rather than a rise from nothing. Within this megatrend, we saw three themes emerge in 2018.

1. The race is on for global tech dominance

The most significant geopolitical event in 2018 was the unfolding of the trade war between the U.S. and China. However, while tariffs and blockings of takeovers took headlines, there is more structural tension between the U.S. and China: the upcoming tech war. Technological leadership (including biotech) is closely related to “hard power”, if only because countries maintain tech-autonomy, even in space. Furthermore, digital technological capabilities will increasingly determine (cyber) power relations and means of projecting power.

This struggle for technological dominance will only become more important in the future with the rise of the sensor-based economy. And with this, we will also see a shift of power to the local level: a new wave of urbanization and smart city technology will greatly empower cities over national governments. As the global tech battle unfolds between China and the U.S., Europe risks losing out on innovation as it still scores high in research, but less so in development of value-adding products and services, seeing itself as on a mission to bring forth  a true European champion.

2. China is eager to take over the helm

The primary “challenger” of the U.S. hegemony is China. Based on its own historical and cultural traditions, it is developing a new vision of progress based on its own unique political philosophy. Increasingly, the contours are emerging of China’s worldview and a Chinese-led world order, as China is leading Eurasian cooperation, BRICS integration, and spearheading Asia’s financial catch-up. This process is further accelerated as the U.S. is increasingly turning inwards and alienating some of its former allies as well as making new enemies. Furthermore, China is making large infrastructure investments (e.g. establishing an intercontinental super grid) as well as developing a new Silk Road for the 21st century.

While the BRI and adjacent investment policies are defining China’s future foreign policy, Made in China 2025 is the blueprint for China’s future economy. Following this plan, China wants to leapfrog its economy into becoming a digital leader with future growth coming from its megacities and regional capitals, which have their own governance model. This is enabled by the implementation of a social credit system that is to combat (financial) misbehavior, corruption and (re-)install trust throughout Chinese society, as well as by other sweeping reforms, as we have seen in 2018, such as its financial liberalization drive or the greening of its economy. Despite economic problems (e.g. the deleveraging of its economy) and technological hurdles (e.g. its semiconductor industry), China will lead the hegemonic shift of our times.

3. (Transnational) Populism is “alive-‘n-kickin”

In 2018, we saw no backing down of populism. In Europe, far-right populism is becoming more mainstream across the European continent. This European divide will make life harder for political parties in the center, which have dominated European politics for decades and have often pushed for more European reforms. Furthermore, the economic policies – loose monetary conditions with high deficit spending – that are proposed by these parties are driven by the resurgence of the Eurozone’s southern member states, such as Italy’s new populist government. In addition, the upcoming Brexit will shake up European dynamics and may open doors to some smaller stakes like the Netherlands. No matter the circumstances, the U.K. will leave the EU.

However, populism is not limited to Europe or the West alone: in Brazil, far-right nationalist candidate Jair Bolsonaro, a former army officer with a “law-and-order” style of governance, has won the Presidential elections. Elsewhere on the continent of change, Latin America, Manuel Lopez Obrador won the Mexican elections with a sweeping majority, promising to take on Mexico’s “mainstream elite”. However, there are also brighter signs of improving political conditions: in April 2018, in just one week, three former presidents were sentenced in South Korea, South Africa, and Brazil on bribery charges. And populist tides will also push countries into cooperation based on shared values, such as the Indo-Japanese partnership.

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: The object
Humans shape tools. We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans. We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time. We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils. Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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2. The machine
Category: The object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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3. The robot
Category: The object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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4. Intelligence
Category: The object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me? (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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5. The medium
Category: The object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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6. The artisan
Category: The human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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7. The deficient animal
Category: The human
Once we became upright bipedal animals, humans found themselves exposed and therefore in a state of fundamental need and deficiency. However, with our hands now free and our eyes fixed on the horizon instead of the ground, we gradually evolved into handy creatures with foresight. Since then, human beings have invented roofs to keep them dry, fire to prepare their meals and weapons to eliminate their enemies. This genesis of man does not only tell us about the never-ending struggle for protection and survival, but more fundamentally about our nature as technical beings, that we are artificial by nature. From the early cave drawings, all the way to the typewriter, touchscreens, and algorithmic autocorrections, technics was there, and is here, to support us in our wondering and reasoning. Everything we see and everywhere we live is co-invented by technics, including ourselves. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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8. The enhanced human
Category: The human
In a lab reminiscent of Apple HQ, a figure lies down, receiving his most recent cognitive updates. He wears a sleek transparent exoskeleton, blending the dark look of Bat Man with the metallic of Iron Man. Implemented in his head, we find a brain-computer interface, enhancing his cognitive abilities. His decision making, once burdened by the human deficiency we used to call hesitation or deliberation, now takes only fractions of seconds. Negative emotions no longer fog his mind; selective neurotransmitters enhance only the positive, fostering beneficial social connections. His vision, augmented to perceive the unseen electromechanical patterns and waves hidden from conventional sight, paints a deeper picture of the world. Garbed in a suit endowed with physical augmentations, he moves with strength and agility that eclipse human norms. Nano implants prolong the inevitable process of aging, a buffer against time's relentless march to entropy. And then, as a penultimate hedge against the finite, the cryo-cabin awaits, a sanctuary to preserve his corporal frame while bequeathing his consciousness to the digital immortality of coded existence. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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9. The cyborg
Category: The human
A skin so soft and pure, veins pulsing with liquid electricity. This fusion of flesh and machinery, melds easily into the urban sprawl and daily life of future societies. Something otherworldly yet so comfortingly familiar, it embodies both pools of deep historical knowledge and the yet-to-be. It defies categorization, its existence unraveling established narratives. For some, its hybrid nature is a perplexing anomaly; for others, this is what we see when we look into the mirror. This is the era of the cyborg. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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