Our diverging responses to climate change

October 19, 2018

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently published a report that urges us to take rapid and radical action against climate change. The report is the most alarming call to action yet, but it still seems that the dominant global response is inaction. How can we explain this (non-) response?

Our observations

  • The latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had one serious and clear message: urgent action – cutting carbon emissions as much and as soon as possible – is needed to keep the world from heating up more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, otherwise consequences will be dire. The impacts will be felt across ecosystems and human communities and economies.
  • Although there is nothing opaque about the data in the new IPCC report, it is questionable whether this will lead to political response. Former head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Gina McCarthy argues that there is no “political will” for action.
  • An Ipsos survey conducted last year among 21,030 adults aged 16-64 in 26 countries showed that 64% of global citizens believe we can address climate change if we take action now. At the same time, the number of those believing that while the climate is changing, humanity can do nothing to stop it, called “climate fatalists”, is higher among young people (22% of those aged 16-34), which could diminish the broad support for urgent action among younger generations, who have to make long-lasting changes in their behavior.
  • It is argued (article in Dutch) that a useful quantification of transition costs and climate risks is missing. The 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics was recently awarded to William D. Nordhaus and Paul M. Romer. Nordhaus has found a way to determine the economic cost of global warming and created a model to calculate the interplay between the economy and the climate. He believes that it is “unlikely” that nations can achieve the Paris Agreement goals, unless policy soon focuses on the market solution to raise the price of goods and services that are carbon-intensive and lower the ones that are less so.
  • Furthermore, with natural capital accounting, financial institutions include their dependencies on natural capital such as clean air and oceans in calculating their assets. Natural capital accounting has been championed by the UN, the World Bank, and a number of finance sector-led and business groups.
  • Recently, 28 commissioners and 17 countries (including China, India, South Africa, Indonesia, Canada and the UK) around the world banded together to form the Global Commission on Adaptation in The Hague. The coalition is led by Bill Gates, Ban Ki-moon, and World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva. The commission’s task for next year will be to figure out the best ways to both prevent and cope with the effects of a hotter planet.

Connecting the dots

“The illustrations of mounting impacts, the fast-approaching and irreversible tipping points are visceral versions of a future that no policy-maker could wish to usher in or be responsible for”, said Christiana Figueres, the diplomat who led the Paris agreement of 2015, about the recent IPCC report. The past decade has shown us undeniable signs of climate change, from record-breaking storms, forest fires, droughts, coral bleaching, heat waves to floods around the world. And as global warming continues, this will become substantially worse. For decades, climate change has had a polarizing effect on society, from eco-terrorism to climate change denial. However, the growing body of evidence and the intensifying effects that people around the world increasingly experience have turned climate change into a politically charged issue. Three different reactions to the reality of climate change and humans as the major cause of climate change can be observed, which is dividing society.The first is skepticism or even denial. The fact that the climate is changing is not so much doubted, but rather the extent to which humans have contributed to this. Although 98% of scientists say human behavior has a major impact on the environment, vested interests often create opposition to this stance, e.g. industrial, political and ideological interests from conservative think tanks or political parties, or the fossil fuel lobby, which has incentives for climate inaction.The second is the nuanced reaction, which partially responds to doubts about ascribing humans a central role in climate change. Although human influence on the environment is undoubted, the term Anthropocene implies a central role for humans, with the climate as a passive entity, subject to our will. Contemporary thinkers such as Donna Harraway and Bruno Latour have tried to nuance this concept of the Anthropocene. In Facing Gaia (2017) Bruno Latour characterizes Gaia, a hybrid term describing our environment, not as a living organism, but neither as dead. It is not dominated, because it dominates us. Donna Harraway coins a number of alternative terms for the Anthropocene, saying that we need a name for the complex, dynamic interplay of forces that people are a part of. The third stance accepts full human responsibility. Humans play a key role in climate change. Proponents of this view respond to the second stance by saying that indeed humans do not yet oversee how and to what extent their behavior has consequences, while acknowledging that recognizing the enormous impact of people is the first step to changing behavior. Ethicist Clive Hamilton urges us to recognize our central role without reservation and strongly opposes a growing group of contemporary thinkers such as Harraway, who find the notion of anthropocentrism troubling. Hamilton poses the question: how can it be possible that, in light of all the evidence, the damage we do to our earth does not seem to trigger a reasonable response? He answers by saying that “forces we hoped would make the world a more civilized place – personal freedom, democracy, material advance, technological power – are in truth paving the way to its destruction.” Hamilton offers us a way to explain why, even when we are presented with all the evidence, we ignore it and refuse to take radical measures. The powers we most believed in, have turned out to be destructive. Fighting climate change means giving up on the absolute right to pursue these powers. The upside is that if we measure climate change in terms of modern human values, we can calculate the benefits of action: Some groups have taken a stab at calculating what climate change will cost the world, or conversely, how much taking action would save us. Earlier this month, the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate calculated $26 trillion in savings by 2030 if humanity would become more sustainable. A new study in Nature Climate Change calculated the social cost of carbon down to individual countries and had a stark message for one of the world’s biggest polluters: The U.S. economy stands to pay one of the highest prices in the world for its emissions in terms of changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, property damages from increased flood risk, and changes in energy system costs.

Implications

  • As policy makers fail to formulate a fitting response, silent unease among citizens could transform into societal backlash. As the IPCC report was published, protesters scaled the German embassy in London to urge Germany to stop mining coal. Recently, tens of thousands of people marched in Paris and other major cities across France to call for greater action on climate change. Perhaps the most effective response comes from initiatives who are legally forcing the Dutch government to adopt more stringent climate policies, such as Urgenda, involved in an already historic case and an inspiration in forcing policy makers to take action.
  • According to a 2018 AODP report, of the 80 largest insurance firms globally, less than 0.5% of assets are invested in low-carbon enterprises that provide solutions to climate change, despite the fact that the insurance sector is highly exposed to its financial risks.

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: The object
Humans shape tools. We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans. We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time. We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils. Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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2. The machine
Category: The object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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3. The robot
Category: The object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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4. Intelligence
Category: The object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me? (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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5. The medium
Category: The object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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6. The artisan
Category: The human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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7. The deficient animal
Category: The human
Once we became upright bipedal animals, humans found themselves exposed and therefore in a state of fundamental need and deficiency. However, with our hands now free and our eyes fixed on the horizon instead of the ground, we gradually evolved into handy creatures with foresight. Since then, human beings have invented roofs to keep them dry, fire to prepare their meals and weapons to eliminate their enemies. This genesis of man does not only tell us about the never-ending struggle for protection and survival, but more fundamentally about our nature as technical beings, that we are artificial by nature. From the early cave drawings, all the way to the typewriter, touchscreens, and algorithmic autocorrections, technics was there, and is here, to support us in our wondering and reasoning. Everything we see and everywhere we live is co-invented by technics, including ourselves. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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8. The enhanced human
Category: The human
In a lab reminiscent of Apple HQ, a figure lies down, receiving his most recent cognitive updates. He wears a sleek transparent exoskeleton, blending the dark look of Bat Man with the metallic of Iron Man. Implemented in his head, we find a brain-computer interface, enhancing his cognitive abilities. His decision making, once burdened by the human deficiency we used to call hesitation or deliberation, now takes only fractions of seconds. Negative emotions no longer fog his mind; selective neurotransmitters enhance only the positive, fostering beneficial social connections. His vision, augmented to perceive the unseen electromechanical patterns and waves hidden from conventional sight, paints a deeper picture of the world. Garbed in a suit endowed with physical augmentations, he moves with strength and agility that eclipse human norms. Nano implants prolong the inevitable process of aging, a buffer against time's relentless march to entropy. And then, as a penultimate hedge against the finite, the cryo-cabin awaits, a sanctuary to preserve his corporal frame while bequeathing his consciousness to the digital immortality of coded existence. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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9. The cyborg
Category: The human
A skin so soft and pure, veins pulsing with liquid electricity. This fusion of flesh and machinery, melds easily into the urban sprawl and daily life of future societies. Something otherworldly yet so comfortingly familiar, it embodies both pools of deep historical knowledge and the yet-to-be. It defies categorization, its existence unraveling established narratives. For some, its hybrid nature is a perplexing anomaly; for others, this is what we see when we look into the mirror. This is the era of the cyborg. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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About the author(s)

Researcher Julia Rijssenbeek focuses on our relationship to nature, sustainable and technological transitions in the food system, and the geopolitics of our global food sytems. She is currently working on her PhD in philosophy of technology at Wageningen University, investigating how synthetic biology might alter philosophical ideas about nature and the values we hold, as well as what a bio-based future may bring.

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