New hope for the liberal world order?

July 15, 2019

What happened?

75 years ago, the conference at Bretton Woods cemented the idea of international cooperation. It defined the contours of a rule-based world order in which economic integration was supposed to support emerging economies and prevent conflicts between nations. The notion of a “liberal world” emerged as a response to two world wars and a devastating economic crisis (the Great Depression) that was exacerbated by protectionism and isolationism in the interbellum. The liberal world order was founded upon effective international institutions (e.g. the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund) and multilateral free trade agreements and the U.S. provided the security umbrella under which it could expand. Eventually, the memorable inclusion of China as member of the World Trade Organization, the fall of the Berlin Wall and subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 provided the “historic vindication” of the liberal world order.

What does this mean?

The U.S. was once the founder of the liberal world order but has now become one of its greatest threats. Little more than a year and a half ago, President Trump slapped steep tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines, as part of his America First policy. Since then, these “Trump tariffs” have focused on China, although many more countries have come into its crosshairs recently (e.g. Japan, India, Mexico, South Korea, Australia, Switzerland as well as the EU). As these are liberal democracies with relatively open markets and a shared hostility towards China’s “authoritarian” form of capitalism and politics, many of these countries have always been important allies of the U.S. Today, however, American isolationism forces these countries to take on a more active role in sustaining and shaping the democratic and liberal world on their own. For example, the Democratic Order Initiative was founded last year to engage public support for the international rule-based system, while the new Alliance of Democracies Foundation wants to “strengthen the spine” of the world’s democracies.

What's next?

Renewed interest in sustaining and developing multilateral agreements between liberal democratic countries could reshape the global governance system in the wake of changing American foreign policy. Japan, India and Australia are now enhancing their strategic partnership in the Indo-Pacific, the EU is boosting its trade partnerships with other economies (e.g. Mexico, Japan), and many other countries are still upholding the pledges of the Paris Agreement and Trans-Pacific Partnership despite the U.S. violating or leaving these multilateral deals. In other words, Chinese authoritarianism, U.S. isolationism and climate change are all becoming pressing issues that require multilateral policy and this could very well lead to a new era of liberal democratic world order.

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: the object
Humans shape tools.

We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans.

We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time.

We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils.

Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command.
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2. The machine
Category: the object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion.
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3. The robot
Category: the object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual.
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4. Intelligence
Category: the object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me?
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5. The medium
Category: the object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message.
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6. The artisan
Category: the human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work.
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