Maritime Arabia

March 1, 2018

Instability marks many large Arab countries such as Egypt, Iraq, and Syria. As a result, power in the region is shifting towards the Gulf. Contrary to popular opinion, the wealth of these nations is not just based on oil and gas, but also rests on old traditions as seafaring communities. Their connections with the external environment create both opportunities and threats for these small nations.

Our observations

  • Although the land-based routes of China’s Belt and Road Initiative bypass the countries of the Gulf, they stand to benefit from its maritime routes. Recently, China signed deals with Abu Dhabi for manufacturing and shipping.
  • Instability threatens Egypt. Last week a terror attack at a mosque in the Sinai killed hundreds of Egyptians. At the same time, Gulf countries are becoming more assertive in the region. This summer, Egypt went through the transferring of two islands close to Sinai to Saudi Arabia.
  • Saudi Arabia is making a radical turn towards increasing commerce and tourism, and it has plans to build a new coastal city. This transition faces powerful challenges as we argued before.
  • This weekend, the Iranian President Rouhani will inaugurate the first phase of the Chabahar Port after receiving the first wheat consignment from India last month.

Connecting the dots

A large part of the Arab world’s geography is marked by deserts; both on the Arab peninsula and in the North African Sahara. This is historically the world of the nomadic Bedouin. In the region of the fertile crescent by contrast, agricultural sedentary societies emerged around river systems such as the Nile, the Euphrates, and the Tigris. Great Arab empires have emerged from these two worlds of the desert and the fertile crescent, and these regions still housed the strongest Arab countries in the 20th century. Recently, however, many of these have come under pressure: civil war in Libya, Mali and jihadism threaten North Africa, on the Arab peninsula there is a chaos in Sinai and Yemen, and Syria and Iraq are instable in the fertile crescent.Yet, there has always been a third geographic domain in the Arab world and in the current vacuum, which is now becoming more important: maritime Arabia. This has a long history about the Arab traders and mystics who brought Islam to the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia. Other examples are Lebanese and Tunisian seafaring in the Mediterranean. The contemporary core of maritime Arabia is formed by Gulf states such as the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman that have long traditions as seafaring nations.Dubai emerged in the 19th century as the main regional port through a combination of liberal policies and diplomacy with the British. Moreover, throughout the centuries it has become a refuge for people fleeing neighboring regimes. Its unwavering hospitality to these people forms the basis of its current appeal to foreigners. Another pillar of its maritime strength has been the persistent investment in infrastructure, first in ports but later also at airports, in airlines and e-commerce. When inland tribes settled Abu Dhabi, they made their living through pearl diving. Since energy revenues made it rich, it has also invested in global trade connections through its sovereign wealth funds, and it boosted the infrastructure with a specific focus on aerospace. Oman had the largest maritime empire in this region. It stretched southwards along East Africa’s coast all the way to Zanzibar, and the Pakistani port of Gwadar was Omani until 1958. Bahrain and Qatar, almost entirely surrounded by water, have also long traditions as maritime hubs for the flow of people and goods. Bahrain currently hosts an important U.S. navy base, and Qatar hosts an important air base.Overall, it is clear that the current success of maritime Arabia is rooted in long traditions as sea-based policies. Their historical ties with the outside world have always created opportunities as well as threats for these small nations. Because of their vulnerability they have often allied with naval powers like England and the U.S., and it required complex diplomacy and alliances. The UAE for instance was established in 1971 between seven emirates to bundle their power. Initially, Bahrain and Qatar were also in talks to join the union, but relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran stood in the way. The current standoff over Qatar shows that these vulnerabilities remain. If the countries of maritime Arabia manage to navigate such regional tensions, they stand to benefit from emerging maritime trade routes.

Implications

  • Saudi Arabia’s current policies focusing on tourism, commerce, and liberalization can be interpreted as a move in the direction of maritime Arabia. However, it remains to be seen whether this is possible considering its land-based tradition emphasizing stern discipline, a warrior ethos and central power.
  • Emerging maritime trade routes from China and from India and Japan provide great opportunities for these countries, building on the ancient tradition of Arab traders in the Indian Ocean.

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: The object
Humans shape tools. We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans. We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time. We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils. Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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2. The machine
Category: The object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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3. The robot
Category: The object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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4. Intelligence
Category: The object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me? (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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5. The medium
Category: The object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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6. The artisan
Category: The human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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7. The deficient animal
Category: The human
Once we became upright bipedal animals, humans found themselves exposed and therefore in a state of fundamental need and deficiency. However, with our hands now free and our eyes fixed on the horizon instead of the ground, we gradually evolved into handy creatures with foresight. Since then, human beings have invented roofs to keep them dry, fire to prepare their meals and weapons to eliminate their enemies. This genesis of man does not only tell us about the never-ending struggle for protection and survival, but more fundamentally about our nature as technical beings, that we are artificial by nature. From the early cave drawings, all the way to the typewriter, touchscreens, and algorithmic autocorrections, technics was there, and is here, to support us in our wondering and reasoning. Everything we see and everywhere we live is co-invented by technics, including ourselves. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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8. The enhanced human
Category: The human
In a lab reminiscent of Apple HQ, a figure lies down, receiving his most recent cognitive updates. He wears a sleek transparent exoskeleton, blending the dark look of Bat Man with the metallic of Iron Man. Implemented in his head, we find a brain-computer interface, enhancing his cognitive abilities. His decision making, once burdened by the human deficiency we used to call hesitation or deliberation, now takes only fractions of seconds. Negative emotions no longer fog his mind; selective neurotransmitters enhance only the positive, fostering beneficial social connections. His vision, augmented to perceive the unseen electromechanical patterns and waves hidden from conventional sight, paints a deeper picture of the world. Garbed in a suit endowed with physical augmentations, he moves with strength and agility that eclipse human norms. Nano implants prolong the inevitable process of aging, a buffer against time's relentless march to entropy. And then, as a penultimate hedge against the finite, the cryo-cabin awaits, a sanctuary to preserve his corporal frame while bequeathing his consciousness to the digital immortality of coded existence. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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9. The cyborg
Category: The human
A skin so soft and pure, veins pulsing with liquid electricity. This fusion of flesh and machinery, melds easily into the urban sprawl and daily life of future societies. Something otherworldly yet so comfortingly familiar, it embodies both pools of deep historical knowledge and the yet-to-be. It defies categorization, its existence unraveling established narratives. For some, its hybrid nature is a perplexing anomaly; for others, this is what we see when we look into the mirror. This is the era of the cyborg. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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