Open-source software is eating the world

December 14, 2018

Software is eating the world’ were Marc Andreessen’s famous words in 2011 to point out that our daily lives will be inevitably and exhaustively converging with software. Interestingly, with this year’s notable acquisitions of Github and Red Hat, we can see that open source software plays a crucial part in this incorporation process. The importance of open source is further exemplified by the 2.3 billion Android devices which rely on the open source Linux kernel. Hence, we take a closer look at some of the trends within open-source.

Our observations
  • In April Pivotal Software, an enterprise cloud computing company, raised $555 million, the largest IPO of an open-source company, resulting in a $3.9 billion market cap on the first day. Pivotal Software contributed their code to several open-source projects like Cloud Foundry Foundation and the Spring Framework.
  • In May Salesforce acquired Mulesoft for $6.5 bilion, a company that builds technology to help businesses connect apps and allow data sharing.
  • In June Microsoft announced their intent to acquire Git-repository hosting service Github for $7.5 billion and closed their purchase in October. As of December the acquisition has been green-lit by EU regulators. Github has become the largest host of both proprietary and open source code in the world with over 28 million users and 57 million repositories.
  • In October IBM bought all shares in Red Hat, a deal valued at around $34 billion. Their press release stated that the prime motivation is to become a hybrid-cloud provider that is able to bring portability and security to multiple clouds.
  • GraphQL is an open-source data query and manipulation language for APIs for fulfilling queries with existing data. Wired has written an extensive article on the programming language, highlighting its value in enabling app developers to easily query different data sources.
Connecting the dots

Open source software allows programmers to study, change and distribute source code freely. Consequently, the absence of a license agreement fee is the most obvious benefit for adopting open-source code. However, more importantly, open source allows programmers to work collaboratively on code due to the largely absent regulatory and financial hurdles. Thereby code  improvement can suddenly draw on immense network effects of programmer communities worldwide resulting in more innovation. As a result open-source software is often more secure. Interestingly, as code is copied, altered and selected, researchers found that code improvement follows evolutionary patterns. Another advantage of open source is  the prevention of vendor lock-in, as can happen with proprietary software where sustainable support and interoperability with other systems can be suboptimal due to conflicts with the company interest. For the same reasons open-source is most common among platform- and infrastructure-software as open standards and open source enable interoperability. A good example can be currently found among containerization and micro-service software which enables the deployment of multi-cloud systems. From the perspective of the vendor there are also convincing arguments to make their source code open. For example, in 2015 Google open sourced TensorFlow, their computational framework for building machine learning models, to attract AI talent globally and benefit from their contributions. Furthermore, in the process they are building a strong academic and developer community around their code which has all kinds of spin-off effects (e.g. sales, publications, PR).From an historic perspective, the open and collaborative nature of coding is as old as software itself. However the formal acknowledgment of open source only emerged in 1998 with the Open-Source Initiative (OSI) after the software commercialization wave in the 70s.

One year later Red Hat went public, a business formed around the open source operating system Linux, which is now the operating system with the largest install base of all general-purpose operating systems (among them mobile operating system Android).Almost two decades later with a yearly revenue of $3 billion and the acquisition by Microsoft Red Hat has shown that open source is able to generate considerable revenue through combining development with subscription-based consultancy, support and service. There are also companies that within the context of open source, sell commercial licenses (double licensing) and/or sell licenses of proprietary software extensions (open core), which is received with contempt by some open source developers. Moreover, public cloud providers like Amazon and Google have received considerable criticism by making money from open source solutions that are offered as as-a-service. In response, two solutions have been proposed, Commons Clause  and the Server Side Public License (SSPL). The commons clause lets developers include a clause which prohibits the licensee to sell the software whereas the SSPL license requires the licensee to open-source all programs that are being used to make the software available (also known as copyleft).In finding new business models and revenue streams for the future, Red Hat developer Bilgin Ibryam believes that the open-source software development is still missing a direct, transparent, trusted, decentralized, automated bidirectional link for transfer of value between the open source producers and the open source consumer. He believes that the blockchain and cryptocurrencies have an important part to play in filling this gap. At the same time we also see that the volatile cryptomarket has caused some open-source projects to lay off employees due to funds that have evaporated in the last few months.

Implications
  • Further acquisitions of open-source software companies is to be expected as the software market matures.
  • Open source foundations will put more emphasis on education in order to stimulate talent growth. For instance, the Linux foundation and Coursera launch new specialization for open source, Linux and Git.
  • Acquisitions of projects within the containerization and micro-service domain.
  • The success of crypto-based open-source development will heavily correlate with the value of cryptocurrencies.

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: The object
Humans shape tools. We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans. We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time. We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils. Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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2. The machine
Category: The object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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3. The robot
Category: The object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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4. Intelligence
Category: The object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me? (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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5. The medium
Category: The object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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6. The artisan
Category: The human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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7. The deficient animal
Category: The human
Once we became upright bipedal animals, humans found themselves exposed and therefore in a state of fundamental need and deficiency. However, with our hands now free and our eyes fixed on the horizon instead of the ground, we gradually evolved into handy creatures with foresight. Since then, human beings have invented roofs to keep them dry, fire to prepare their meals and weapons to eliminate their enemies. This genesis of man does not only tell us about the never-ending struggle for protection and survival, but more fundamentally about our nature as technical beings, that we are artificial by nature. From the early cave drawings, all the way to the typewriter, touchscreens, and algorithmic autocorrections, technics was there, and is here, to support us in our wondering and reasoning. Everything we see and everywhere we live is co-invented by technics, including ourselves. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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8. The enhanced human
Category: The human
In a lab reminiscent of Apple HQ, a figure lies down, receiving his most recent cognitive updates. He wears a sleek transparent exoskeleton, blending the dark look of Bat Man with the metallic of Iron Man. Implemented in his head, we find a brain-computer interface, enhancing his cognitive abilities. His decision making, once burdened by the human deficiency we used to call hesitation or deliberation, now takes only fractions of seconds. Negative emotions no longer fog his mind; selective neurotransmitters enhance only the positive, fostering beneficial social connections. His vision, augmented to perceive the unseen electromechanical patterns and waves hidden from conventional sight, paints a deeper picture of the world. Garbed in a suit endowed with physical augmentations, he moves with strength and agility that eclipse human norms. Nano implants prolong the inevitable process of aging, a buffer against time's relentless march to entropy. And then, as a penultimate hedge against the finite, the cryo-cabin awaits, a sanctuary to preserve his corporal frame while bequeathing his consciousness to the digital immortality of coded existence. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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9. The cyborg
Category: The human
A skin so soft and pure, veins pulsing with liquid electricity. This fusion of flesh and machinery, melds easily into the urban sprawl and daily life of future societies. Something otherworldly yet so comfortingly familiar, it embodies both pools of deep historical knowledge and the yet-to-be. It defies categorization, its existence unraveling established narratives. For some, its hybrid nature is a perplexing anomaly; for others, this is what we see when we look into the mirror. This is the era of the cyborg. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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About the author(s)

FreedomLab Fellow Arief Hühn headed FreedomLab from 2018 until 2023, directing our research and business endeavors with a special emphasis on the impact of emerging digital technologies on the economy, politics and society. He holds a master's degree in communication sciences from Radboud University Nijmegen and a doctorate degree in human-computer interaction from Eindhoven University of Technology.

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