Blue gold

May 3, 2018

The world is increasingly facing water stress. While water is of vital necessity to all living organisms, competition over freshwater resources grows as it is essential to the functioning of all industries and increasingly becoming a strategic commodity to countries. What are the risks and drivers of water stress and what are our approaches to facing a world where water is becoming scarcer and more valuable?

Our observations

  • The UN World Water Development Report was published last month in conjunction with the World Water Day. It notes that without taking action to reduce the stress on rivers, lakes, aquifers, wetlands and reservoirs, more than 5 billion people could suffer water shortages by 2050, due to climate change, increased demand, and polluted supplies. Today, 2.1 billion people already live without safe drinking water at home, affecting health, education and livelihoods.
  • Agriculture accounts for 70% of the freshwater taken out of natural reserves. Research has shown that about 40% of the water used for irrigation is derived from unsustainable withdrawals that disrupt the flows of rivers. The energy industry, manufacturing industry and the public water supply are the next most water consuming domains in Europe.
  • Pollution of water is damaging ecosystems, affecting the quantity and quality of water available for human consumption. Pollution has impacted almost every river in Africa, Asia, and Latin America since the 1990s and is mainly driven by agriculture. But other industries and cities also pose a significant threat, with about 80% of industrial and municipal wastewater being discharged without treatment.
  • Drought due to climate change is currently a clear threat in Cape Town and in Bolivia, where the second-largest lake is drying up, but potential drought belts are also encompassing Mexico, western South America, southern Europe, China, Australia, and South Africa. Droughts can lead to large-scale migration. Adaptations to this ‘new normal’ include building reservoirs to store water, and switching to crops that require less water.
  • Illustrative of the golden business of drinking water are the examples of Russia’s drinking water export to China, which is struggling with freshwater scarcity, and the success of the bottled-water industry. The U.S. goes through 50 billion water bottles a year and bottled-water has outpaced milk, coffee, and juice in number of liters of drinks sold.

Connecting the dots

Although the majority of the earth's surface is water-covered, only 2.5% of it is freshwater and desalination costs a lot of energy. The risks of freshwater stress are manifold. It can spark inequality, social unrest, and even geopolitical conflicts, as we noted earlier. Water scarcity has played a role in driving tensions in conflicts such as in Syria and Yemen. It also gives rise to tensions between countries. An example is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam located in the Blue Nile, that has caused strife between Egypt and Ethiopia. Another example is the Doklam crisis between China and India. Last year, China refused to cooperate over shared water resources, showing that the country is willing to use water as a geopolitical weapon as regional tensions unfold. As water gets scarcer and more valuable, it becomes a strategic commodity for all countries, and competition over it will rise. Meanwhile, water resources are prone to privatization. There are many controversial cases of companies privatizing the water supplies of economically depressed communities, as Nestlé has done. Finally, deregulation is another threat to clean drinking water. Under Trump, the U.S. has repealed the 2015 Clean Water Rule, which regulated and protected U.S. waterways from development and pollution.Today’s growing water scarcity urges us to rethink our approach to water. While climate change and global warming are among the drivers behind water problems, the world’s increasing water stress is largely driven by mismanagement, pollution, and overextraction of water sources. Water experts like Asit Biswas claim that there is no physical scarcity of water in urban areas, but that cities are facing a crisis in the management of urban water and wastewater services. In that sense, water stress is a manmade crisis. The omnipresence and fluidity of water makes it difficult to grasp and could partially explain our mismanagement. According to hydrologists, water cannot simply be 'caught' in one model or one solution. Water never sits still and yet we tend to make decisions emphasizing the floating, circular nature of water. For example, we drink bottled-water, a majority of the plastic bottles are not recycled, driving the pollution of our drinking water with microplastics. Indeed, the UN report concludes that the focus is now on human-built infrastructure to improve water management, while these ignore the approaches that nature presents to us; different solutions we could mimic in order to improve our water availability, like groundwater recharge and natural and constructed wetlands. Another positive development is that the depletion of freshwater resources has led to growing interest in the water sector in circular approaches to water, such as the reuse and recovery of watercycle residuals. We increasingly see initiatives to calculate the value of wastewater or to recover valuable energy and raw materials from wastewater, like phosphates.

Implications

  • The big difference in (lack of) profitability of public transport across cities suggests that cities and their operators can still learn a lot from each other. Some cities struggle with outdated infrastructure (e.g. New York City) and may need to invest in significant upgrades, but they may also have to adopt new modes of management and operational planning.
  • Mobility-as-a-service models are still in their early days and have not proven very successful yet. Eventually, they may require autonomous vehicles to realize their potential as labor costs weigh heavily on public transport in general and ride-hailing services especially.
  • Even though (European) governments traditionally invest in public transport infrastructure (and contract operators to provide the actual transport services), more recently, (local) governments are increasingly looking for private investors to invest in the new infrastructure (through public-private partnerships); e.g. in Britain and the Netherlands.

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: The object
Humans shape tools. We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans. We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time. We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils. Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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2. The machine
Category: The object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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3. The robot
Category: The object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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4. Intelligence
Category: The object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me? (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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5. The medium
Category: The object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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6. The artisan
Category: The human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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7. The deficient animal
Category: The human
Once we became upright bipedal animals, humans found themselves exposed and therefore in a state of fundamental need and deficiency. However, with our hands now free and our eyes fixed on the horizon instead of the ground, we gradually evolved into handy creatures with foresight. Since then, human beings have invented roofs to keep them dry, fire to prepare their meals and weapons to eliminate their enemies. This genesis of man does not only tell us about the never-ending struggle for protection and survival, but more fundamentally about our nature as technical beings, that we are artificial by nature. From the early cave drawings, all the way to the typewriter, touchscreens, and algorithmic autocorrections, technics was there, and is here, to support us in our wondering and reasoning. Everything we see and everywhere we live is co-invented by technics, including ourselves. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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8. The enhanced human
Category: The human
In a lab reminiscent of Apple HQ, a figure lies down, receiving his most recent cognitive updates. He wears a sleek transparent exoskeleton, blending the dark look of Bat Man with the metallic of Iron Man. Implemented in his head, we find a brain-computer interface, enhancing his cognitive abilities. His decision making, once burdened by the human deficiency we used to call hesitation or deliberation, now takes only fractions of seconds. Negative emotions no longer fog his mind; selective neurotransmitters enhance only the positive, fostering beneficial social connections. His vision, augmented to perceive the unseen electromechanical patterns and waves hidden from conventional sight, paints a deeper picture of the world. Garbed in a suit endowed with physical augmentations, he moves with strength and agility that eclipse human norms. Nano implants prolong the inevitable process of aging, a buffer against time's relentless march to entropy. And then, as a penultimate hedge against the finite, the cryo-cabin awaits, a sanctuary to preserve his corporal frame while bequeathing his consciousness to the digital immortality of coded existence. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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9. The cyborg
Category: The human
A skin so soft and pure, veins pulsing with liquid electricity. This fusion of flesh and machinery, melds easily into the urban sprawl and daily life of future societies. Something otherworldly yet so comfortingly familiar, it embodies both pools of deep historical knowledge and the yet-to-be. It defies categorization, its existence unraveling established narratives. For some, its hybrid nature is a perplexing anomaly; for others, this is what we see when we look into the mirror. This is the era of the cyborg. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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About the author(s)

Researcher Julia Rijssenbeek focuses on our relationship to nature, sustainable and technological transitions in the food system, and the geopolitics of our global food sytems. She is currently working on her PhD in philosophy of technology at Wageningen University, investigating how synthetic biology might alter philosophical ideas about nature and the values we hold, as well as what a bio-based future may bring.

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